Super Tuesday Aftermath

So Super Tuesday has come and gone. Trump did well. Cruz did well. Rubio did poorly, but well enough to stay in the race. Kasich seems to be determined to wait for Ohio on March 15^th before he gets out of the race, and just today, Dr. Ben Carson suspended his campaign.

Now what?

With Hillary Clinton all but locking up the Democratic Nomination, all of the media coverage will center for the next few weeks on the Republicans. Trump is in a dominant position, but he left the door open on Super Tuesday just wide enough to allow both Rubio and Cruz another two weeks to think they might be able to make it all the way to the convention.

At this point, there are only two things that can happen.

The first and most likely occurrence is that Donald Trump wins Florida and/or Ohio on March 15^th , when all primaries become winner take all rather than proportional. In this scenario, Trump would continue his winning ways in the winner take all states, rack up big delegate counts, and clinching the Republican nomination for President before the end of March.

The reason this is the most likely scenario is because Cruz’s support seems to be isolated to the Deep South, and Rubio is being hurt badly by Kasich still being in the race. Rubio would have won Virginia last night had Kasich not claimed almost 10% of the vote. Kasich’s voters aren’t going to Trump or Cruz, so Rubio would have gotten most of that 10% in a state that he lost by less than 5%.

With the crowded field still in place, it is unlikely that any candidate would be able to get a coalition of Republican voters large enough to defeat The Donald and his very loyal voting base. Even if he only continues to garner 35-40% of the vote in the winner take all states, he will begin to pull away from the field, and the feeling of inevitability of a Trump victory will be even stronger than it is today.

Last Friday’s endorsement of Trump by New Jersey Governor Chris Christy was the first, but not the last endorsement for Trump as he gets closer and closer to the nomination. The reality of politics is that the earlier you get on board, the better the job offer you will get down the road if your candidate wins. Florida Governor Rick Scott is rumored to be the next major Republican figure to endorse Trump.

The second scenario is far more complicated. After Trump’s victories last night, the Republican Establishment has finally woken up to the fact that the party is about to be taken over by Trump. 

Their reaction will be swift and strong. Millions upon millions of dollars will be spent in the next two weeks trying to tare holes in the Trump brand in a last ditch effort to save the Republican Party.

The thought process is that the Trump voter has been sold on what they believe Trump stands for, when in fact, he doesn’t stand for many of the traditional values held by the Republican Party. Trump’s comments this past weekend when he failed to renounce for KKK Grand Wizard David Duke was news, but there wasn’t enough time for Trump’s opponents to really take advantage of the gaff before voting began on Tuesday.

Tuesday night, Trump put another bullet in the gun of his opponents as he said the following about Planned Parenthood:

“Look, Planned Parenthood has done very good work for many, many – for millions of women.”

Trump went on in his speech to call himself a “common-sense conservative.”

Right after saying all that, he did say that he wouldn’t fund Planned Parenthood, but why would he defund it if he believes it does good work for millions of women?

Back to the second scenario. With the coming attacks, there is a slim chance that the both John Kasich and Marco Rubio, and to a lesser extent Ted Cruz (I’ll explain in a minute) could win enough of the winner take all states to stop Trump from securing the 1237 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination.

If no candidate gets the required amount of delegates, then the delegates themselves, at the convention in Cleveland, Ohio in late July, will be responsible for nominating a candidate. A typical convention is a formality, as the nomination has been secured by a candidate, and while the delegates still have to officially nominate the selected candidate, the real function of a convention is to put on a four-day, nationally televised commercial for the party’s candidate.

However, the convention itself would look dramatically different without a nominee in place. On the first ballot, the delegate vote would mimic the results of the individual primaries. However, once that vote has taken place and no candidate has been selected, the delegates would vote again, and all hell would break loose. Conventions, at their nature, are put on by the establishment. The idea that Trump would be able to hold together, or rally enough delegates at the convention to actually win the nomination is doubtful. The individual delegates would be led by their state party chairs as to who to vote for, so there would be some major back-room dealing going on.

No convention, from either party has had this scenario play out in the past 40 years.

While scenario two is unlikely, in the event it takes place, I can see only one ticket that would be able to unite the party. Rubio as the Presidential Candidate, with John Kasich has his running mate.

The establishment would make the case that a majority of voters had actually voted for someone other than Trump, and that his polarizing nature would give him no chance to win in November. I disagree with that argument, but that would be the argument made. If this scenario plays out, Trump would almost definitely run as a third party candidate, handing the election to Clinton.

At this point, it is unclear if the Republican establishment would try to run a third party candidate if Trump wins the nomination. However, a third party candidate, no matter the makeup, would nearly guarantee a Clinton victory in November. A Clinton win in a three person race would be eerily similar to her husband’s victory in 1992 over George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. In that election, Bill Clinton was elected President without receiving over 50% of the vote.

Now we get back to the question from above, why not Ted Cruz. The answer is simpler than you might think. No one in the Republican Party likes Ted Cruz. Cruz was elected by the TEA party movement, and in his time in Washington he has made no friends on either side of the aisle. No sitting senator has endorsed Ted Cruz. I don’t know the man, but by all reports, he is just not an easy person to get along with, and so people don’t like him and would not support him for President.

In fact, if Rubio and Kasich are unable to gain any real ground on Trump, and Cruz is left after March 15^th as the only viable option to Donald Trump, you will see the Republican Establishment run to line up behind Donald Trump.

One thing is for sure, after Super Tuesday, there is no logical path for any Republican candidate to clinch the Republican nomination before the convention other than Donald Trump.

For lovers of history, March 15^th is a date that will jump out to you. 2060 years after the death of Julius Caesar, Republicans should truly “beware the Ides of March.” It may go down in history as the day the Republican Party as presently constituted dies. 

Don't Vote Trump

To the dismay of many, and the sorrow of some, Donald Trump is on track to be the Republican candidate for President this November. Throughout the fall of 2015, pundits everywhere mocked Trump and his candidacy as a side show that would soon play itself out, eliminating Trump from the race, and leaving the nomination for one of the “real” politicians.

Unfortunately, a month after the first votes were cast in Iowa, not only has the Trump candidacy not played itself out, it seems that this show is destined to go on, perhaps, to the White House.

If you are like me, you are wondering one thing: How did it come to this?

In politics, as in most things, timing is everything.

If we look at recent Presidential history, we can see that the Presidency itself is often a referendum on how the country feels every four years.

In 1976, the country was feeling hurt. They had re-elected Richard Nixon in 1972, only to find out that their President had lied to them, and ultimately left office in disgrace. Amazingly, Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon, basically leaving the Republican Party with no chance to win the White House in 1976.

Enter Jimmy Carter.

Jimmy Carter was a former Governor from the GREAT state of Georgia. Carter campaigned on his character and made a vow that he would never lie to the American people. That was exactly what the country wanted to hear, so Carter was elected President.

Four years later, Carter had kept his promise, but honestly was no longer the attribute that people were looking for in their President. The Iran Hostage Crisis had gone on and on, all the while, the President looked weaker and weaker.

Enter Ronald Regan.

Regan was the former governor of California and before that he was an actor. Regan brought strength to his candidacy and promised that not only would he bring the hostages home, but he would do it immediately. After being elected, Regan was aggressive on foreign policy, always projecting strength and confidence. Regan’s methods worked. The American people, after years of losing faith in their President, because of Vietnam, scandal, or perceived weakness, finally had a President they could follow. Regan said that the Russians should take down the Berlin Wall, and by the end of the 1980’s, that is exactly what they did. Regan continued to strengthen the military, reigniting an arms race that the Russians were in no financial position to win or even compete in. Whether or not Regan knew what he was doing when it came to foreign policy is questionable. Maybe he got lucky or maybe he was the right man at the right time for the job? Either way, in 1984, Regan won 49 states and re-election. He was the first President to serve two full terms in office since Dwight Eisenhower.

In 1988, people probably wanted to re-elect Ronald Regan to a third term, but instead they voted for his Vice President, George H.W. Bush. To say that Bush got elected on Regan’s coat-tails is more of a compliment to Regan than a criticism on Bush. Bush struggled at times in his campaign, but in the end, he followed Regan into the White House.

I don’t want to bore you too much with a history lesson, so hopefully you get my point. The first answer to the question of how we got to the point where Donald Trump is going to the be the Republican Nominee for President starts with the way the country feels.

Right now, we are divided country. It has been headed this way for a while. After 9-11, the country was united behind our President because we had been attacked. Over the next few years, that unity survived. It carried us into Afghanistan and infamously, into Iraq. Between the poor handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, the financial crisis of 2007-2008, and the eventual resentment felt at the end of two-term Presidency (sound familiar?) all unity was gone. The election of 2008 was amazing all around, and if you haven’t read the book Game Change, you should find some time to read it. Obama won the White House promising hope and change, but I would think just about anyone would be able to see that he came up short of those promises. The reason he came up short would surly be dependent on your political view, but I think it safe to say we are a more divided country in 2016 than we were in 2008.

Abortion, gay marriage, economic inequality, ObamaCare, foreign policy, immigration reform, gun control, and education reform are all topics where the two major parties have moved away from the middle towards their respective ideological corners. Even within the parties, there is little consensus on those hot-button issues. I saw a poll recently that said in New Hampshire, 41% of voters in the Democratic Primary believed that the next President needed to be more liberal than President Obama. Presidential elections used to be about who could claim the moderate tag quickest after winning their respective primary battle, but now, each side seems to want a zealot.

I think it is fair to say, that on the Republican side, voters feel like they have been failed by their Presidential Candidates. In both 2008 and 2012 they went with the establishment candidate and lost. 

This year, they want to go in a different direction.

Reason number two of how we got here is even simpler than reason number one. We are a society that puts too much emphasis on celebrity, and Donald Trump is a celebrity. We live in a world where people are more likely to know the name of Kim and Kanye’s baby than they are to know the name of a Supreme Court Justice. Trump has 100%, or very close to it, name recognition. Even within the Republican Party, how many people had heard the name John Kasich before this campaign began? I hadn’t. But I had heard the name Donald Trump.

Did you ever watch the Apprentice? The show was two hours long. In the first hour you had a competition where the contestants, split into teams, would try win a challenge. Who decided who won the challenge? Most of the time, Trump did. The second hour of the show was the board room where Trump would question the losing team, essentially trying to figure out who was to blame. Once blame had been assigned, by Trump, it was time for the show’s trademark catchphrase, “You’re Fired!”

Now, I watched the show for two seasons and I enjoyed it. I never thought much about it. But with Trump running for President now, the show itself makes a lot of sense when compared with the campaign that Trump has run. Trump never told anyone how to do better. Trump never mentored anyone. Trump never did anything, but tell you who is to blame and fire them. He didn’t have to produce ideas, he just had to poke holes in the ideas and performance of other people. Sound familiar? If you are planning on voting from Trump, I ask you one question: Which idea of his makes you want to vote for him? America doesn’t win anymore isn’t an idea. Repealing and replacing ObamaCare is an idea, but only if you say what you would replace it with. Building a wall is an idea, but if you don’t have a solution for the 12 million people already here, then you really haven’t dealt with the problem.

The reality is that all of Trump’s ideas, leave more questions than answers.

The third reason Trump is in position to be the Republican nominee is due to the size of the field itself. Last fall, when Trump’s candidacy should have run its course, there were typically 10 or 11 people on the debate stage. With so many candidates, there is little time for substance. The “rules” of the debates are typically the same. A candidate gets a question, and they have 60 seconds to answer. 60 seconds. 1 minute. It takes 3 minutes to cook popcorn in the microwave, but please, future Mr. or Mrs. President, explain to me how you would handle the looming threat from Isis in the next 60 seconds. The fact that in 2016 this is how we are supposed to choose our Presidential candidates is baffling. This 60 second system benefited Trump and Carson, the two least qualified candidates in the entire race. In a 2 or 2 ½ hour debate, one candidate would only have to speak for about 10 minutes. No substance was needed. In the process of the debate, you could even complain about how you didn’t have more time to explain everything. Trump’s candidacy is a mile wide and an inch deep, but because of the crowded field and 60 second answers, he is able to adlib long enough to make you think he is a viable candidate.

The fourth and final reason Trump is in this position is the most hypocritical of all. The media, desperate for ratings at a time in the political calendar where most people aren’t paying attention, focused on Trump as a way of boosting ratings. At every debate last fall, Trump was given more questions than anyone. Did you ever stop to ask yourself why? It was because those debates were television shows. The ratings for one debate would dictate the advertising dollars that could be charged to advertisers for the next debate. The Media, CNN, NBC, Fox, CBS, and all of their 24 hour cable channels have made huge dollars off of the Trump campaign because people have been tuning in to see what crazy thing he was going to say next. The Media had a vested interest in not only keeping Trump in the race, but keeping him at the top of the polls. People wanted more and more Trump, so the media gave it to them. In the process, the media missed on their number one obligation to the American people, vetting the candidate. I can’t ask Donald Trump a question. But media members get to ask him a question, then follow up, then press him when his answer makes no sense. 

Any media member or candidate who had the audacity to push Trump on his views was demonized.

The first candidate to question the legitimacy of Donald Trump’s campaign was Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush is a two term governor of Florida where his record was remarkable. Jeb Bush was the most qualified and capable candidate running for President on the Republican side. Jeb Bush had watched as his father and brother served as President. Jeb Bush, more than most understands what is required when you are the President of the United States, and time and again in debates, and to his own detriment, Jeb stood flabbergasted that Donald Trump was being taken seriously as a candidate because he doesn’t have the experience or the temperament to do the job that he is trying to get. Jeb Bush challenged Donald Trump, and Trump responded by questioning Bush’s energy. He asked if we really wanted another Bush in office. A few days before the South Carolina Primary, he even questioned George W. Bush for not protecting us before 9-11. The idea that Bush should be disqualified because of his last name is as ludicrous as the idea that a person’s gender or ethnicity would have anything to do with their ability to be President. Trump’s characterization of Bush stuck, in large part because Bush did not respond with the same vitriol with which he was attacked. Bush is not low energy, as much as he is thoughtful and slow to anger. That seemed like weakness compared with Trump’s aggressive attacks, and Bush would ultimately drop out of the race because Trump defined him.

Megyn Kelly, in the first debate of this entire process asked a question that should have eliminated Trump from the race completely: in a long and very aggressive way, Kelly questioned Trump’s treatment of women in the past. The audience booed, Trump made a joke, and the entire country missed the point. Donald Trump has often used rude and derogatory language against women with whom he has disagreed in the past. Even in the campaign itself, Trump made fun of the appearance of Carly Fiorina as if a women’s appearance is the only part of her that matters in a political campaign. I think it is fair to say that Trump lacks a certain respect for women. The Democratic Nominee for President is going to be a women. That should have been game over, but to Megyn Kelly’s astonishment last fall, and to the detriment of the Republican Party now, no one paid attention.

So this has been long, and you might be wondering why I am saying all of this. The reason is simple. 

Most people who read this are going to be voting on Tuesday. If you are planning on voting for Donald Trump, please reconsider. I know you are angry with the Republican establishment, but this is not the answer. Don’t vote for Trump because of what someone else has done wrong in the past. Don’t vote for Trump because he had a television show that you liked to watch. Don’t vote for Trump because he is strong and he is going to get things done.

Trump is not strong. Trump is a bully.

Throughout this post, I have conceded that Trump is going to win. All of the polls say that he is going to win. All of the pundits say he is going to win. If I had to bet my money, I think he is going to win.

BUT.

There is a quote that I believe with all my heart.

Never fail to believe that a small group of dedicated individuals has the ability to change the world, because it is the only thing that ever has.

We get to choose in this election. Share this post. Tag friends in it. I’m not special, and this isn’t about me. I’m not trying to get a bunch of views or clicks. I’m trying to convince you that there is still time to nominate a true conservative that will deliver a conservative argument to the American people this fall. Hillary won South Carolina last night. That race is all but over.  Do you really want to have to choose between Trump and Clinton?

We can change this election.

Don’t vote Trump.