Super Tuesday Aftermath

So Super Tuesday has come and gone. Trump did well. Cruz did well. Rubio did poorly, but well enough to stay in the race. Kasich seems to be determined to wait for Ohio on March 15^th before he gets out of the race, and just today, Dr. Ben Carson suspended his campaign.

Now what?

With Hillary Clinton all but locking up the Democratic Nomination, all of the media coverage will center for the next few weeks on the Republicans. Trump is in a dominant position, but he left the door open on Super Tuesday just wide enough to allow both Rubio and Cruz another two weeks to think they might be able to make it all the way to the convention.

At this point, there are only two things that can happen.

The first and most likely occurrence is that Donald Trump wins Florida and/or Ohio on March 15^th , when all primaries become winner take all rather than proportional. In this scenario, Trump would continue his winning ways in the winner take all states, rack up big delegate counts, and clinching the Republican nomination for President before the end of March.

The reason this is the most likely scenario is because Cruz’s support seems to be isolated to the Deep South, and Rubio is being hurt badly by Kasich still being in the race. Rubio would have won Virginia last night had Kasich not claimed almost 10% of the vote. Kasich’s voters aren’t going to Trump or Cruz, so Rubio would have gotten most of that 10% in a state that he lost by less than 5%.

With the crowded field still in place, it is unlikely that any candidate would be able to get a coalition of Republican voters large enough to defeat The Donald and his very loyal voting base. Even if he only continues to garner 35-40% of the vote in the winner take all states, he will begin to pull away from the field, and the feeling of inevitability of a Trump victory will be even stronger than it is today.

Last Friday’s endorsement of Trump by New Jersey Governor Chris Christy was the first, but not the last endorsement for Trump as he gets closer and closer to the nomination. The reality of politics is that the earlier you get on board, the better the job offer you will get down the road if your candidate wins. Florida Governor Rick Scott is rumored to be the next major Republican figure to endorse Trump.

The second scenario is far more complicated. After Trump’s victories last night, the Republican Establishment has finally woken up to the fact that the party is about to be taken over by Trump. 

Their reaction will be swift and strong. Millions upon millions of dollars will be spent in the next two weeks trying to tare holes in the Trump brand in a last ditch effort to save the Republican Party.

The thought process is that the Trump voter has been sold on what they believe Trump stands for, when in fact, he doesn’t stand for many of the traditional values held by the Republican Party. Trump’s comments this past weekend when he failed to renounce for KKK Grand Wizard David Duke was news, but there wasn’t enough time for Trump’s opponents to really take advantage of the gaff before voting began on Tuesday.

Tuesday night, Trump put another bullet in the gun of his opponents as he said the following about Planned Parenthood:

“Look, Planned Parenthood has done very good work for many, many – for millions of women.”

Trump went on in his speech to call himself a “common-sense conservative.”

Right after saying all that, he did say that he wouldn’t fund Planned Parenthood, but why would he defund it if he believes it does good work for millions of women?

Back to the second scenario. With the coming attacks, there is a slim chance that the both John Kasich and Marco Rubio, and to a lesser extent Ted Cruz (I’ll explain in a minute) could win enough of the winner take all states to stop Trump from securing the 1237 delegates needed to clinch the Republican nomination.

If no candidate gets the required amount of delegates, then the delegates themselves, at the convention in Cleveland, Ohio in late July, will be responsible for nominating a candidate. A typical convention is a formality, as the nomination has been secured by a candidate, and while the delegates still have to officially nominate the selected candidate, the real function of a convention is to put on a four-day, nationally televised commercial for the party’s candidate.

However, the convention itself would look dramatically different without a nominee in place. On the first ballot, the delegate vote would mimic the results of the individual primaries. However, once that vote has taken place and no candidate has been selected, the delegates would vote again, and all hell would break loose. Conventions, at their nature, are put on by the establishment. The idea that Trump would be able to hold together, or rally enough delegates at the convention to actually win the nomination is doubtful. The individual delegates would be led by their state party chairs as to who to vote for, so there would be some major back-room dealing going on.

No convention, from either party has had this scenario play out in the past 40 years.

While scenario two is unlikely, in the event it takes place, I can see only one ticket that would be able to unite the party. Rubio as the Presidential Candidate, with John Kasich has his running mate.

The establishment would make the case that a majority of voters had actually voted for someone other than Trump, and that his polarizing nature would give him no chance to win in November. I disagree with that argument, but that would be the argument made. If this scenario plays out, Trump would almost definitely run as a third party candidate, handing the election to Clinton.

At this point, it is unclear if the Republican establishment would try to run a third party candidate if Trump wins the nomination. However, a third party candidate, no matter the makeup, would nearly guarantee a Clinton victory in November. A Clinton win in a three person race would be eerily similar to her husband’s victory in 1992 over George H.W. Bush and Ross Perot. In that election, Bill Clinton was elected President without receiving over 50% of the vote.

Now we get back to the question from above, why not Ted Cruz. The answer is simpler than you might think. No one in the Republican Party likes Ted Cruz. Cruz was elected by the TEA party movement, and in his time in Washington he has made no friends on either side of the aisle. No sitting senator has endorsed Ted Cruz. I don’t know the man, but by all reports, he is just not an easy person to get along with, and so people don’t like him and would not support him for President.

In fact, if Rubio and Kasich are unable to gain any real ground on Trump, and Cruz is left after March 15^th as the only viable option to Donald Trump, you will see the Republican Establishment run to line up behind Donald Trump.

One thing is for sure, after Super Tuesday, there is no logical path for any Republican candidate to clinch the Republican nomination before the convention other than Donald Trump.

For lovers of history, March 15^th is a date that will jump out to you. 2060 years after the death of Julius Caesar, Republicans should truly “beware the Ides of March.” It may go down in history as the day the Republican Party as presently constituted dies.